Mercedes show the potential of invincability, while Ferrari toil and stutter at the sidelines
Callum Alexander | Callum on Cars | F1
If Mercedes have demonstrated anything, it’s that they are at the peak of their powers after the first five races of F1 2019.
Lewis Hamilton claimed victory from teammate Bottas as they crossed the line to complete a fifth consecutive 1-2 at the Spanish Grand Prix. It has meant the Five Time Champion now leads his teammate by seven points, who also took the bonus point for fastest lap at the Circuit De Catalunya.
The win ratio between the Brit and Finn is finely poised: three for Hamilton and two for Bottas. Such is the Silver Arrows’ monopoly on the competition, an exclusive battle for ultimate honours in 2019 is emerging at the top of the standings.
Red Bull’s Max Verstappen is the closest rival in third, but is 46 points – almost two race wins – adrift. Ferrari lye fourth with Sebastian Vettel, two points down on the Dutchman with teammate Charles Leclerc another seven behind.
Mercedes as a team and Hamilton and Bottas as a driver pairing have found a purple patch of operational performance beyond the realms of the rest of grid. More fundamentally, it appears that neither Red Bull or Ferrari possess an infrastructure capable to counter the perpetual dominance Mercedes are producing.
It raises the ineluctable question: can Mercedes become the first team to go unbeaten throughout an entire F1 season?
Mercedes boss Toto Wolff was cautious not to tempt fate when asked: “You need to stay humble and keep both feet on the ground,” the Austrian said. “We have had five fantastic performances now with five one-twos but we don’t take it for granted. It is not just saying it. It is really the mindset we have.”
Only two teams have come close to accomplishing that feat: Mercedes themselves in 2016 where Hamilton and eventual Drivers Champion Nico Rosberg won 19 out of 21 races. The other was McLaren winning 15 out of 16 races in 1988 with the formidable but fractious driver pairing of Aryton Senna and Alain Prost.
Wolff insisted in Spain that Mercedes’ primary target was to secure a sixth consecutive Drivers and Constructors championship double in 2019. That number of titles would surpass Ferrari’s haul of five championship doubles with Michael Schumacher between 2000 and 2004.
If that possibility were to prevail, it would cement Mercedes as surely the greatest team in the history of F1. But if they were to become unbeatable on the way to that accolade; seizing the unspoken narrative of invincibility; not only would they be legends; they would become immortalised as one of the greatest teams in sporting history.
In Spain, Mercedes demonstrated in a myriad of ways just why attaining that achievement is within their capabilities. The first is Mercedes’ development capacity to improve track performance – they have ability to out-develop the Italian team.
For the Spanish Grand Prix, Ferrari brought an armada of upgrades for their SF90: a new engine specification, a new race fuel and various aerodynamic developments. These updates were originally planned for the Canadian Grand Prix in two races time, but were brought forward in a bid to “catch up” with the Silver Arrows.
All upgrades worked, yet in spite of their valiant efforts, it was made to look inadequate compared to what Mercedes had implemented on their W10.
The World Champions brought an aerodynamic package – the front wing and barge board - that sources claim was worth four tenths of a second per lap. This translated into improved performance: Bottas beat teammate Hamilton again to pole position – his third in three races – by six tenths.
The Britain’s lap time didn’t reflect his true potential on his first run, while the track did not allow for improvements on the second.
Ferrari were trounced upon: Vettel qualified third, just over eight tenths behind the flying Finn’s lap and Leclerc was beaten by Verstappen to fourth, with the Monegasque having to settle for fifth. The gulf between F1’s current titans was laid bare: Mercedes had extended their pace advantage over Ferrari – at a track where in preseason, all indications pointed towards Ferrari being the fastest.
The trend continued into the race. As the lights faded, Hamilton made a better start than Bottas, but behind both, Vettel had the best as it was three abreast heading into turn 1. Pole sitter Bottas was squeezed between his teammate and the Vettel on the outside. In contrast to Baku, Hamilton emulated his ruthless racers instinct and braked latest on the inside of Bottas, claiming the lead.
The German, in an optimistic attempt to offer some sort of resistance to the Silver Arrows, locked up his front right, drifting just wide off track. That compromised his exit pace enabling Leclerc to challenge for third until Vettel cut out his path on heading into turn 2, forcing him to lift off the throttle. That allowed Verstappen to slip past Leclerc and overtake Vettel on the outside through turn 2 to take third.
The final podium spot would never be grasped by Ferrari again. In Vettel’s intention to mix it up with the Silver Arrows at turn 1, he had flat-spotted his front right tyre, affecting the pace he was able to drive at; it meant Leclerc had stronger pace.
Ferrari imposed team orders; Vettel yielded to let Leclerc utilise the pace he had. The 21-year old set an initial lap time equivalent to pace setters Mercedes, but that dropped away as further laps followed.
Having just let his teammate past and running fifth, Vettel was desperate to ditch his tyres. He clung on to lap 20, Ferrari put a medium set of tyres on in a slow pit stop; this changed his race strategy onto a two stop. Leclerc on a one stop strategy, pitted on lap 26 for hard tyres to last him until the end of race.
With Ferrari splitting their drivers’ strategy, both the scarlet red cars were driving at different paces to optimise their races. Vettel now driving faster than Leclerc caught the back of his teammate, with Ferrari again using team orders to change their drivers around. Leclerc let Vettel by around the outside of turn 4.
Vettel admitted that his first corner gamble had backfired on his race: “It wasn’t really there, so after that, I compromised my own race. Probably that’s where we lost the podium.”
“From there it was difficult to come back, the Safety Car gave us a bit of a chance but we were on the same pace as Max, so difficult or impossible to pass.”
For Ferrari, the struggle to find performance sufficient enough to catch and match Mercedes’ pace reveals an alarming precedent. It raises fundamental questions about the conceptual design about the SF90, something Binotto alluded to when asked about Ferrari’s weaknesses in Spain.
“We’re losing a lot in each single corner. Quite a lot of understeer. It’s something which we really need to analyse. Any early conclusion today would be the wrong conclusion.”
“It will take some days to have a proper conclusion. [It could be] a matter of balance, a matter of downforce – maybe even car concept. I think we do not have answer.”
The intriguing detail here is that Mercedes and Ferrari have different front-wing designs and subsequent aerodynamic blueprints for their cars: the W10 is conceptualised for maximum downforce, whereas the SF90 is about aero consistency.
With Ferrari lacking cornering speed, the curiosity coming to the fray about their restrictive aerodynamic philosophy could prove to be the catalyst that undermines their title hopes.
If that actuality prevails, it will only disappoint and frustrate their devoted and loyal fan base - the Tifosi. Having witnessed Mercedes dominate since 2014, their patience may well be tested beyond endurance and suppression.
As the most passionate and hardcore following of the Scuderia, many will not hold back in expressing scornful contempt at Ferrari’s continual peripheral plight in the wilderness.
With the Silver Arrows just three points short of the maximum available – the fastest lap points in Bahrain, China and Baku evaded them – the steady circulation of their title aspirations during the preseason appears to have flatlined under the reality that Mercedes are quicker.
The results would suggest that Ferrari are nothing more than a sideshow - the supporting gig to the headline act: the march of Mercedes featuring the Hamilton and Bottas show.
Added to the mix is Hamilton – arguably the best driver of his generation – and it becomes obvious that the narrative and plotline in F1 2019 leaves Ferrari, in all likelihood, chasing a lost cause.
The variable incursions threatening to prohibit Mercedes’ invincible status are many: weather, reliability, racing incidents, bad luck, driver error and management mistakes to name the trip wires to tread between.
When asked whether it was a relief that Ferrari were not right behind Mercedes, Hamilton said: “We’re still very, very focussed on trying to make sure we deliver each weekend. We don’t come to the race knowing that we’re going to have a gap, like today.”
“And also, we’re aware of… we only have a small number of engines through the year, reliability could be an issue, anything could happen at any point, so you’re super-focussed on trying to make sure you deliver.”
Time will tell if Mercedes can manage the hurdles, the next being the Monaco Grand Prix – a race weekend fraught with risk.
Callum Alexander | Callum on Cars | F1
Photos: RaceFans.net
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