It's looking highly likely that the predictions I made after preseason testing were wrong!
With Formula One in the midst of the annual summer hiatus, this is an ideal time to reflect on the talking points that have come to define the 2022 season so far. I should start by addressing the predictions I made after preseason testing. I have put off writing about this matter for as long as I possibly could, to give the optimum chance for Mercedes to turn things around with the W13. Despite the best efforts of the team back at Brackley and Brixworth, not enough headway has been made to realistically compete for the drivers’ and constructors’ championships.
My predictions have turned out to be wrong. To be honest, I knew deep down that the predictions I made were highly likely to turn out to be wrong. It was apparent that Mercedes had made mistakes in the design and development process with the W13, which were all too obvious during the second preseason test at the Bahrain International Circuit. I realised there and then that drivers Lewis Hamilton and George Russell would likely be out of contention.
Nevertheless, I made the predictions that I did anyway, for the reason that I didn’t want Mercedes, Hamilton and Russell to write off the season before it had begun. I wanted them to take the challenge before them head on, to fight for it and not give up on the reason why they are racing in Formula One in the first place. Sport is very psychological, and knowing the true scale of the task, I wanted to try and motivate and inspire them to defy the odds stacked against them.
In mathematical terms, it’s still possible. But realistically, it’s now unlikely, the points gap in the standings is too big to overcome. My nature is inherently optimistic, I am in essence a positive person. But my nature is also intrinsically realistic, I live in reality, not in a fantasy world. With my predictions for the 2022 Formula One season, the reality has caught up with my optimistic outlook. As a Lewis Hamilton fan myself, accepting that has been difficult and disappointing in equal measure, especially so after what happened at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix last year.
Just how the 2022 season has panned out is a poetic injustice when you think about it. With the W13, Mercedes have dropped the ball, and shot themselves in the foot. It has meant Hamilton hasn’t had the opportunity to try and right the wrong from last year. It’s a cruel twist of fate in that regard, and it must have been hard knowing that they would be powerless to try and win back what they lost. Even so, I have been greatly encouraged by the significant strides Mercedes have made since the start of the season.
"I pray that lessons have been learnt with the W13 so that Mercedes aren’t in this position next season with the W14"
It’s reassuring to see the resolutions that have been implemented have sorted many problems out. The attitude and approach taken towards improving the W13 is testament to the work ethic and culture of the team, which never left me in any doubt that Mercedes would get on top of things at some point, it was just a matter of time. Slowly but surely, perhaps inevitably, the performance of the car has been gradually getting better. It’s pleasing to see this continual progression, to know that the work put in has been worth it in some way.
Pushing the team forward are Hamilton and Russell, a driver combination that can be relied upon to deliver consistent results, despite the inferiority and inadequacy of the W13 car. That reinforces my view that they are the best driver pairing on the grid. At the same time, it must be challenging for Russell being teammates with Hamilton, for numerous reasons. But the most notable is to be compared and contrasted with the undisputed benchmark driver in Formula One.
No one will ever know what it must feel like to be Lewis Hamilton, the barriers he has broken as a black person from an underserved socio-economic background, not just in Formula One, but across multiple industries. It’s something that I will never be able to completely comprehend. He has blazed an inspirational and motivational trail, and the graciousness in which he has overcome what wrongfully happened in Abu Dhabi last year is another example of what an aspirational role model he is.
Mercedes are such an epic team, they have been the benchmark for eight years, presiding over an unprecedented period of domination in Formula One. I just pray that lessons have been learnt with the W13 so that Mercedes aren’t struggling next season with the W14. I am reassured by the teams track record that this situation can be avoided in 2023. I have faith in Toto Wolff, one of the best team principles there has ever been, that it won’t be like this next year. I do hope Mercedes can prove me right.
With Mercedes never really in championship contention, the title fight has been between Red Bull and Ferrari this year. Like Mercedes, Ferrari are such an epic and illustrious team, there’s much to like about them. The 2022 season started with optimism about their prospects, as the F1-75 car they had produced was very fast. There was genuine conviction that they could be serious contenders. But it was a false dawn. Ferrari have imploded this season, and it has been quite shocking to witness, as their season has been derailed by reliability problems and strategy mistakes, as well as driving errors.
These own goals have sabotaged their attempts to achieve their ambitions. With the way things have panned out, it’s hard to reconcile with the fact that Charles Leclerc won two of the first three races and had a 46-point lead after Max Verstappen retired twice. There’s no point downplaying the size of the task to overturn an 80-point deficit with nine races left, it really is as big as it gets. But stranger things have happened though. Nevertheless, the series of events which have seen Ferrari fall from grace have been self-inflicted, and the consequences have been catastrophic.
The list of misfortune is too long to detail every incident here, yet you notice a recurring theme emerge. Unforced driving errors at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix from both Leclerc and Carlos Sainz threw away points. Then two engine failures in three races at the Spanish Grand Prix and Azerbaijan Grand Prix cost Leclerc two likely victories, with Sainz also suffering a retirement in Baku for the same reason. At the Monaco Grand Prix, Ferrari binned another almost certain race win for Leclerc after screwing up tyre strategy.
With two power units broken beyond repair, and with only three permitted per driver for the season, Leclerc was compromised at the Canadian Grand Prix, as he took a grid penalty for the use of a brand-new engine. Starting on the back row of the grid, he managed to finish in fifth place in the race. The British Grand Prix created more confusion when Ferrari pitted Sainz for tyres during a safety car period, even though Leclerc was leading the race. Sainz then retired from the Austrian Grand Prix after the engine failed.
Leclerc went on to make his second driving error during the French Grand Prix, when he crashed out from the lead, haemorrhaging even more points and a likely victory. And at the Hungarian Grand Prix, Leclerc went from leading the race to finishing sixth after Ferrari made the wrong choice on tyres, which resulted in a slower tyre strategy. After deliberation, it’s quite the catalogue of miscalculations, and what’s concerning is that they’ve all been repeated, time and again. The inconsistency indicates an underlying problem with the operational workings in the Ferrari team.
Mistakes are unavoidable and will happen no matter what. But recurring errors that turn into trends aren’t merely mistakes, it’s incompetence. Ferrari have produced a fast enough car this season with the SF-75 to compete for the championships. It hasn’t been as adversely affected by porpoising or bouncing, although we will perhaps allude to why in a moment. But they have thus far squandered the opportunity through a series of fundamental faults. Ferrari have potential to be a competent team, but to emulate Mercedes and Red Bull, they have sort out their operational shortcomings.
"the human error champion is the strong favourite to claim his first drivers’ championship this season"
Leclerc is a talented driver, and I respect him. He has been performing at a high level this season, but he has the tendency to make some mistakes, and even though they are infrequent, that's still too often if you want to compete against the best drivers, who scarcely make any mistakes at all. To reach his highest level, he has to drive close to the edge, but not go over it. It’s a challenging balancing act, and I know it's easier said than done, especially coming from me watching at home, what do I know! But I think Leclerc just needs to take a small step back from the edge.
So far in the 2022 season, Ferrari have been the architects of their own downfall. The same can’t be said for Red Bull though. Despite some reliability problems in patches throughout the season, the troubles have been less detrimental than those suffered by Ferrari. From a strategic and operational perspective, the team have been near faultless. The RB18 car has been really fast, and hasn’t been as susceptible to porpoising or bouncing as rivals, although again, we will maybe allude to why in a moment. It has been fairly plain sailing for Max Verstappen really.
He has been relatively unchallenged by competitors for most of the season. He certainly hasn’t been pushed as hard or as close to the limit as he was last year. That perception is reinforced by his compliant teammate Sergio Perez. They will deny it of course, but it’s discernible that Red Bull favour Verstappen internally. He is the golden boy, the special one, the first ever human error champion. Whoever his teammate, they are expected to play second fiddle, and Perez plays that role well. You probably think that I give Verstappen a hard time when I write about Formula One.
It may be perceived as harsh, but all I do is hold up mirrors. Despite my grievances about what happened last season, and at the last race in Abu Dhabi last year, I accept that Verstappen is a talented driver and Red Bull are a competent team, and I appreciate them for that. And there’s no point overlooking it, the human error champion is the undoubted favourite to claim his first drivers’ championship this season. He has been driving at a high level, and has done what has been asked of him, given the vastly superior car he has had compared to competitors.
There have been two fundamental problems caused by the new era ground effect cars that were introduced to create better racing for the 2022 season. Porpoising is an issue related to aerodynamics, and bouncing is a matter caused by ride height. It has been implied that to negate the impact of these two inherent problems, Red Bull and Ferrari have pushed the boundaries of the floor designs, and have bent the technical regulations into shape. Some teams have suggested that what they have done circumvents the intentions of the rules.
In the short term, the FIA are implementing a metric that’s set to be introduced at the Belgian Grand Prix to limit the amount of permitted bouncing, and to prevent floors from flexing. In the long term, design changes to the cars for 2023 have been put forward, involving modifications to the sides of the floors as well as the underfloor. How significant what Red Bull and Ferrari have done, how much of an advantage they might have gained, is unknown for certain, but it should become clearer when the new rules are enforced in Spa. The stop watch never lies.
Like Mercedes and Ferrari, McLaren are such an epic and illustrious team, there’s much to like about them. But by the high standards they have set in the past, they have had an underwhelming 2022 season it must be said. Just one podium is the only token of achievement in an underperforming MCL36. Lando Norris claimed that at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, who has been driving well, despite the inadequate car. In contrast, Daniel Ricciardo has struggled in his time with the team.
He has been a shadow of his former self, much to the puzzlement of everyone. McLaren are said to be in the process of terminating his contract, and replacing him with his fellow Australian compatriot Oscar Piastri, who is separately embroiled in dispute between McLaren and Alpine about which team has the valid contract. It’s a sorry situation, and could end up being an expensive one for McLaren if they pay-out for Riccardo and incur legal costs to pay Alpine for Piastri for a possible indemnity clause.
As for the underperformance of McLaren, the team are having constructed a new wind tunnel and simulator at their Woking headquarters, the McLaren Technology Centre, which is due to be completed in 2024. They have already upgraded its computational fluid dynamics hardware, and it’s cited that these infrastructure projects are instrumental in the team’s aspirations and ambitions to return to the front of the grid, competing for pole positions, race wins and championships. Time will tell how it all plays out, but there’s reason to be optimistic at McLaren with this long-term plan, it’s just that patience will be required for that investment and potential to come to fruition.
No matter what though, I am a Lewis Hamilton fan. I always have been, and I always will be. Nothing will ever change that. My view hasn't changed, I think he's the best driver in Formula One, with the talent, work ethic and mindset to dig deeper within himself and beat any driver. He could well be one of a kind. For the remaining nine races of the 2022 season, I hope Hamilton and Mercedes can get themselves into a position to win races. That would show the journey of progression this season with the W13, and would give reason for optimism next year with the W14.
Time will tell though. Let's see what happens.
Photos: Mercedes-AMG F1, Scuderia Ferrari, Tumblr
Comentarios