The electric and digital era is gathering momentum. Can self-driving cars fit into the future?
It’s now universally accepted by petrolheads that the car industry is irreversibly changing. The internal combustion engine (ICE) is being ditched for pollutant emission reasons. Taking its place will be battery electric vehicles (BEV). It’s now only a matter of time until that reality comes into effect. In the UK from 2030, ICE cars are prohibited, and from 2035, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are banned. This has been common knowledge for some time.
Both dates are junctures for carmakers, marking a point of no return. It will be the end of the ICE era, and signposts the start of the electric era. It’s set to come accompanied with the digital era too. But the conception of autonomous cars remains somewhat an alien proposition. So much rhetoric is spouted about its feasibility, and so much hype is spoken about its potentiality that gauge how credible a prospect it really is on public roads.
There are lots of myths in circulation about autonomous driving. Some are with no valid foundation whatsoever. Misconceptions range from public transit becoming obsolete, to not needing driving licenses anymore. But there are entirely genuine, legitimate concerns that do exist. These revolve around whether self-driving cars can be trusted to operate in a reliable way. This safety anxiety is without doubt the biggest obstacle it faces.
But misconceptions about autonomous driving create confusion. This has partly been peddled by some self-driving developers themselves who have in anticipation created an expectation by overpromising and underdelivering. Yet this has served nothing other than for PR purposes to grab headlines. And with developers failing to deliver on what they said, it has even undermined the case for self-driving. And besides, there are several other unrelated points of contention against it that shall be discussed later in this piece.
"For now, the question about its compatibility on public roads is central to its viability"
For now, the question about its compatibility on public roads is central to its viability. The technology must be dependable in order to convince occupants and pedestrians alike to trust autonomous driving, and to allay the sincere fears individuals have that are very real. That needs to happen before social acceptance of it can become mainstream in the public domain. However, it’s safe to say that, right now, the jury is still open as to whether customers can have confidence in self-driving.
People have good reason to be sceptical and suspicious about the plausibility of autonomous driving though. There have been numerous horror stories of crashes caused by malfunctions of semi-autonomous cars that have proved fatal to occupants and pedestrians. Most such incidents involve Tesla cars in Autopilot mode, with the company subsequently subject to multiple investigations. Despite the technology still at an early stage of development, the reports nevertheless don’t exactly inspire confidence, trust or faith that full self-driving is a good idea, even if it’s in its infancy.
This amount of public exposure reveals the shortcomings of current self-driving technology, and indicates that it just simply isn’t ready to be rolled out for road use by the public. It essentially advertises that people are being shuttled around in driverless death-traps, which really is the worst PR possible. There is an increased and inherent risk to it at the moment. That puts self-driving technology under more intense scrutiny than ever, as it has more to prove.
There has been a notable lack of realism about autonomous driving from developers like Tesla CEO Elon Musk. He’s considered to be complicit in the term "Autonowashing" – the practice of making something appear more autonomous than it actually is. Because in reality, the widespread availability of self-driving is years away, although companies like Tesla are not always upfront and prepared to admit it. And that absence of a tenable timetable paving the way to its introduction and adoption as an option for commuters also throws a spanner in the works.
A lack of regulation enforcing baseline safety standards means that responsibility falls to developers to determine that framework by default. Without universal regulations for autonomous driving, there is the prospect of pitfalls in the technology which compromises safety. How concerning this gap between governmental legislation from multiple juristictions and self-driving companies is not all that clear, so it’s hard to say how problematic it might be. Even so, carmakers are contending with the challenge that autonomous driving poses head on.
There are five levels to self-driving. Right now, Tesla are understood to be one of the frontrunners. They have already shaken up the car industry, they are now making waves with autonomous technology too, although not necessarily gaining that many plaudits for apparent reasons at the moment. All Tesla cars come fitted with advanced hardware that enable Autopilot features, and with software updates that aim to improve functionality over time, full self-driving capabilities.
Located on all Tesla cars are eight surround cameras that give 360-degree visibility providing up to 250 metres of range around a car. This collection of cameras is enhanced with the addition of twelve ultrasonic sensors that detect objects in the car’s vicinity. Processing all this information is an onboard computer that runs a system called neural net. Tesla claim it perceives the world in all directions simultaneously and on different wavelengths compared to people.
For Tesla, BEVs are one thing, but autonomous driving is quite another. It’s a leap of faith into the unknown, but it could be within their capabilities to ultimately make it work. That applies to another carmaker with similar ambitions, cause Tesla aren’t alone in developing self-driving technology. The Volkswagen Group are branching out into this domain as well, although they are considered to be several years behind Tesla in terms of development.
"While autonomous driving will become mainstream, it’s unlikely to become the only method of commuting"
The Group’s software company Car.Software Organisation is collaborating with Microsoft’s Azure cloud technology to create an Automated Driving Platform. It will help accelerate development, simplify processes and allow faster integration of autonomous technology into its car fleet. The majority of actual self-driving tech itself is being developed in-house, giving the company full control across its long-term project. The partnership will also make deploying software updates easier.
Looking at the bigger picture compared to Tesla, and VW are at a disadvantage from the outset. Originally an ICE carmaker, VW must adapt to the electric, digital and autonomous era to survive. They need to become a software company, which is unchartered territory for VW. It’s therefore somewhat unsurprising then that the scale of technological transformation that’s required has resulted in VW cooperating with a software company with the expertise Microsoft has.
On the surface, the potential of self-driving technology promises a lot of benefits for people. With Human error accounting as a factor in 95% of road traffic accidents in the UK, autonomous driving could reduce that rate, ensuring the technology is compatible. And it has implications that could redefine the concept of a car, and the experience it provides. It could change from a mode of transport to commute, into a capsule concept of comfort and convenience, where time is spent socialising or working.
In specific scenarios, I can imagine this new dimension would have its advantages. But as a car fanatic, I can also anticipate scenarios where it would have its drawbacks. Carmakers and developers have made considerable strides with self-driving technology. Yet the concept itself effectively leaves the car concept behind, and renders it redundant, replaced instead with a capsule concept that essentially just carries out a function. What would be the point in having a variety makes and models of capsule that perform the exact same function? You may as well just have one type.
And that leads onto a more pressing predicament. For petrolhead purists who want a driver’s car, a capsule concept would deprive the emotional connection that a car provides from stimulating the senses. This is perhaps the biggest loss of all. Car fanatics would be denied engagement and interaction, and the satisfaction that brings from the challenge, risk and reward of driving. A capsule concept simply could not replicate that, and it would not be able to make up for the lost sensations.
Although this is a rational objection, car fanatics can rest assured that megaphones and placards for protest won’t be needed. While autonomous driving will become mainstream, it’s unlikely to become the only method of commuting. It should just become another option for people to choose how to commute. That diversification means it would come down to a matter of personal preference. Not that it’s something to preoccupy yourself with. The timeline towards self-driving technology remains uncertain.
Besides, there are many hoops for autonomous technology to jump through in development before it actually reaches that stage, and even then, with so many variables on public roads to compute, it remains to be seen how well the technology can really cope. And even then, there is regulatory approval in multiple jurisdictions to consider. In that context, Elon Musk’s hyperbolic claims for short-term launch are greatly exaggerated, while VW have aimed for a more conceivable debut from 2025-2030. So yeah, self-driving is on the cards in some form at some point, it’s just a matter of when.
Photo: Volkswagen
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