The controversial outcome of the 2021 season is like the elephant in the room as the highly anticipated new era of Formula One commences
I think I owe an explanation. It was my intention after the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix to write up a review of the 2021 season. However, after the shitstorm that engulfed Formula One following the controversial and unprecedented decisions that were made by former race director Michael Masi, the events that occurred took precedence, thus I wrote an analysis of the contentious outcome.
Afterwards, the 2021 season review piece was out of sync with what else I had planned, and so I changed my mind and decided not to do it. Compounding this was the notion of disillusionment from what happened in Abu Dhabi, and therefore I was not all that enthusiastic about writing a season review. I may not always write about Formula One, but I always follow it closely. Nevertheless, a notable inference that I can take from watching the races at home was that Max Verstappen struggled to handle Lewis Hamilton in some wheel-to-wheel scenarios.
Verstappen’s attempts to stop Hamilton beating him by driving the seven-time champion off the track at the Brazilian Grand Prix or by brake testing him at the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix to name two prominent examples could be construed as unsporting desperation. Red Bull are a competent team and Verstappen is a talented driver, and I have respect for their achievements, but both racing scenarios were just beyond the limit of fairness. It revealed something that I can conclude from the 2021 season – that I am unconvinced Verstappen is the better driver between the pair.
I think people know who the best driver on the grid is. Anyway, this piece is not meant to be a belated review of last season. So, with the 2021 season consigned to the pages of history, the 2022 season is about to get underway at the Bahrain Grand Prix. It comes with particular anticipation as a result of perhaps the biggest shakeup of technical and sporting regulation changes the pinnacle of motorsport has ever had, which does set up possibly the most interesting and exciting Formula One season ever.
The sporting regulations have been subject to long-overdue scrutiny following the decisions at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix made by the race director, when the safety car protocols were not applied correctly, which decided the outcome of the 2021 drivers’ title. In light of the contentious circumstances, it was right to remove Michael Masi from the race director role. His reputation had been damaged beyond repair or redemption, and meant his position had become untenable, which was not sustainable for Formula One to rebuild what credibility and integrity it had lost.
"I may not always write about Formula One, but I always follow it closely"
His removal is a tacit admission by the FIA that Masi failed to officiate in accordance with the rules. The race director role will now rotate between two people. Yet although Masi was the culprit at fault, the person who was responsible and accountable, the disastrous decision making which had such catastrophic consequences also exposed the structural shortcomings with the how the FIA manages the Formula One race events.
To apply the sporting regulations fairly and consistently, a Virtual Race Control Room has been created to assist the race director in the decision-making process. This is effectively Formula One’s version of the Video Assistant Referee, referred to as VAR, which has been introduced in football to help officials referee games. With this technological oversight, race control should be better equipped to deal with the inherent unpredictability of grand prix racing.
I approve of this change. If the impact in football is anything to go by, then it should further ensure more accurate and reliable decision-making, if not entirely foolproof. Another change I commend is that radio communications between the team members and the race director will cease during race events. This is the sporting regulation that ultimately proved fatal for Hamilton and Mercedes in the last laps of the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, therefore the most symbolic and significant alteration.
However, it will still be possible for teams to ask questions to the race director during race event sessions, but that process will be non-intrusive. At the time of writing, I’m not aware of what that process entails. What I do know is that Herbie Blash returns to the FIA in a senior advisory position. Hopefully, in this capacity, he can assist the race director with race control responsibilities, which should lighten the burden of the role, and further strengthen the FIA structure.
The technical regulation changes for the 2022 season though are revolutionary and transformational, and they have the intention of creating closer racing. To achieve this goal, the 2022 Formula One car has been designed around a new aerodynamic philosophy to allow cars to follow more closely without losing downforce. A Formula One car from previous seasons could lose up to half the downforce they generated just by following another car in front.
To try and resolve this hinderance which has compromised racing, the front wing and nose concept have been redesigned. The rear wing has been revised to dispel air higher and further away from the car and a 3D-shaped floor that produces downforce more efficiently without affecting airflow has been implemented. These changes, in theory, should mean cars can stay closer together on track. Time will tell how it plays out in practice, but the prospect looks to be rather good.
It's going to be fascinating to watch what transpires, as the expectation that has been built up is fuelled by the uncertainty of not knowing what will happen. Another change is the enlargement of the wheel size from 13 inches to 18 inches, with the 2022 cars set to run low profile tyres for the first time as well. Furthermore, body work has been added to the wheels, including covers and wake control devices. Form follows function in Formula One, and the purpose of these additions is to enhance airflow.
It was at the pre-season shakedown in Barcelona held at the Circuit de Catalunya that teams with different interpretations of the rules revealed the different concept designs. There was considerable variation, with Red Bull in particular catching the most attention for the innovative sidepod design. But that soon changed at official pre-season testing held in Bahrain, when Mercedes took the limelight for an even more extreme and innovative design of the sidepod.
It is worth mentioning here that judging the performance of Formula One cars during pre-season testing is notoriously difficult, if not impossible. Teams are operating different test programmes with different fuel loads and engine modes in operation as well as tyres on the cars. But the surprise that spread through the paddock seemed to catch other teams in the pitlane off guard. It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say teams were initially dumbfounded by the sidepod upgrade on the Mercedes.
Aesthetically at least, it is a gamechanger. But given the track record of Mercedes for pioneering engineering in Formula One, it is possible that they have found a loophole in the technical regulations that other teams have overlooked and not considered. Thus, if the sidepods do prove to be a performance gamechanger, it merely adds further evidence to my view that Mercedes are the best team on the grid in Formula One.
"the expectation that has been built up is fuelled by the uncertainty of not knowing what will happen"
The radical design of the sidepods is quite an accomplishment when you consider the internal layout of the components that must be really tightly packaged together. However, that potential performance will only be relevant if it can be extracted from the car by the driver and exploited on the track. As a result of the radical regulations for the 2022 season, it has created an aerodynamic imbalance with the 2022 cars, and as a consequence has caused something called "porpoising".
In layman terms, this occurs when airflow is hampered as it detaches and attaches itself to the 2022 cars at higher speeds. It is an issue that has impacted every team to a more or less degree, but it affected Mercedes in particular at the initial pre-season shakedown, and the problem continued during the official pre-season test. To fix that, you simply raise the ride height of the car. But that compromises performance, so the quandary for Mercedes has been to find a solution that remedies the bouncing without syphoning off velocity.
This predicament that Mercedes appears to have can seemingly be taken at face value, and that they’re not just sandbagging as some have suggested. They could be bluffing of course, but it’s unlikely. Mercedes have proven in past seasons that they can surmount obstacles, and I think they will find solutions to unlock the inherent performance that resides within the W13. It is a matter of perseverance.
What will be particularly intriguing is how the dynamics between Lewis Hamilton and new teammate George Russell plays out. Both are at different stages of their careers, motivated by different reasons in the 2022 season. Hamilton to win back his eighth title that was taken away from him in Abu Dhabi and Russell to prove his credentials racing for Mercedes against the best driver of all time.
I am a loyal Lewis fan, and nothing will ever change that. Nevertheless, I know that the day will come when Hamilton does decide to stop racing in Formula One. What will Lewis Hamilton fans do when he retires from Formula One? It’s the subject that I will attempt to analyse in my next blog post, as it is an inevitable scenario that can’t be ignored indefinitely.
It must feel surreal for Russell in some ways to be teammates with Hamilton at Mercedes. The picture of him with Hamilton as a kid is endearing, and by his own admission, he viewed Hamilton as a superhero. Now he races alongside him in what will be one of his biggest challenges he will ever face. Russell has a good track record, having won virtually every category in the lower formulas. He also performed very well throughout his three years in substandard Williams cars.
Even so, I think he will be surprised by the high-level Hamilton performs at and the relentless consistency he is able to deliver. We are talking about an exceptional driver in Hamilton, and I do think over the course of the 2022 season, Russell is likely to find it hard to beat him on a consistent basis, especially so after what happened in Abu Dhabi. I like George and want him to do well. And if he ends up proving me wrong, fair play.
Red Bull looked to have a strong car during pre-season testing. The RB18 ran reliably and it had plenty of pace, with Max Verstappen setting the fastest time in the last moments of the last day. Ferrari too demonstrated the credentials of their F1-75 car. The package the Scuderia have put together is a solid one. It looked to be fast and there were no notable reliability concerns. Both Red Bull and Ferrari are in a good position for the 2022 season.
McLaren had a more mixed pre-season. At the shakedown test in Barcelona, the MCL36 car was reliable and it looked to be reletively fast. But in Bahrain at official testing, reliability issues compromised the teams running programme, which was further compounded by Daniel Ricciardo testing positive for Covid. Not ideal preparation then. Much like Russell, I like Lando Norris and want him to do well. And I like the McLaren team too. I hope they have a good season.
"I think Formula One means more to Hamilton than most other drivers, and I think he sacrifices more than most other drivers as well"
Now when I made my predictions for who would win the drivers’ and constructors’ titles for the 2021 season, I didn’t anticipate the race director malfunctioning at the season ending race in Abu Dhabi, resulting in the safety car protocols being meddled with to manipulate the outcome. Had what happened not have happened in Abu Dhabi, my prediction of Hamilton winning the drivers’ title would have been proven absolutely right.
So, it’s not a question of whether my judgement is out of alignment. From what I can deduct from pre-season testing is that racing is going to be more unpredictable this year, which is exactly what the 2022 regulations intended for. This places more emphasis on the driver to make the difference in the car as a result. That in turn would imply that the best drivers rise to the top.
It is a scenario that plays into the hands of Hamilton. Of course, you can say I'm biased. But my prediction isn’t based on bias. It’s calculated on work ethic, talent and mindset. I think Formula One means more to Hamilton than most other drivers, and I think he sacrifices more than most other drivers as well. And with the difficulties of Abu Dhabi as an extra incentive, I think that makes him more motivated and determined than ever.
For these reasons, I think Hamilton will win the drivers’ title for an eighth time, and right the wrongs of Abu Dhabi. Despite the struggles Mercedes have had in testing, once they get the car sorted out, the W13 will prove to be a competent package. Hence, I think Mercedes will win the constructors title as well. They are the best team with the best driver, and that pairing is hard to beat. Let’s see what happens, only time will tell if I’m right, or wrong!
Photos: Formula One
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