Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes supremacy is under serious threat. Will the 2021 title defence be the toughest yet?
In a sense, the 2021 Formula 1 season has a touch of déjà vu about it. With the revolutionary new rules and regulations intended for 2021 now delayed until 2022 because of Coronavirus, you could be mistaken for thinking that nothing much has changed since the 2020 season. But scratch the surface and F1 has subtly evolved on the sporting front. With some challenging curve balls thrown into the mix to spice the spectacle up, F1 should have a rollercoaster ride in store.
The disruption inflicted by the pandemic wrecked the race calendar for the 2020 season. Whilst the 2021 season is still compromised by Coronavirus, the race calendar remains almost entirely intact. Only the Australian Grand Prix in mid-March has been postponed and rescheduled for November. It means that the season opener will now be the Bahrain Grand Prix at the end of March. And with a 23-race calendar, the 2021 F1 schedule features the most races to be held in a single season.
"With the pandemic still widespread worldwide, F1 will continue to follow Coronavirus protocols"
Two retained races for 2021 are the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix held at Imola and the Portuguese Grand Prix held at Portimao in place of the Chinese Grand Prix and the Vietnam Grand Prix that remain side-lined due to Coronavirus. But F1 has added two new additional races. The Dutch Grand Prix is to return held at the Circuit Zandvoort and the inaugural but controversial Saudi Arabian Grand Prix held in Jeddah. Different tracks from different eras that provide extra anticipation for exciting racing.
With the pandemic still widespread worldwide, F1 will continue to follow Coronavirus protocols. There shall be regular testing for drivers and team members, closed events with no spectators, guests or partners. Minimal team, FIA, F1 and supplier personnel will be permitted trackside while social distancing precautions continue. The lifting of restrictions is dependent on how the Covid situation evolves throughout the 2021 season.
The changes!
Considerable changes with Technical Regulations themselves are overshadowed by the introduction of the first ever cost cap. This was already in the pipeline, but with Coronavirus impacting team finances, a revised cost cap has been brought forward as a response. For 2021, the baseline figure is $145m, with teams afforded an extra $1.2m per race. But that baseline figure will reduce to $140m in 2022 and $135m in 2023. That amount includes every aspect of operating an F1 team. There are some exceptions though. Driver salaries, marketing costs, and the salaries of the three highest earners in each team are exempt.
In F1, the financial disparity between teams has created a two-tier championship. The underlying intention of the cost cap is to close the financial gap between top teams and the rest. It curtails the resources of top teams. This should establish a level playing field, and put more emphasis on expertise rather than financial supremacy. The concept of this regulation change is about making F1 sustainable, and it’s about creating fair competition. It’s about fairness. It’s about equality of opportunity between teams. It’s a more significant moment than most people realise.
But the Technical Regulations comprise of evolutionary changes to the cars. One area that’s been modified is the cars’ floors. The shape is noticeable different. That’s because the rules state that the floor must now be solid. In 2020, slots near the floor edges were used to increase downforce. For 2021, these have now been prohibited. And a cut out towards the rear of the floor is also specified, to further reduce the area where downforce can be gained. How teams cope with this rule change to claw back lost downforce will be intriguing.
A more minor change to the rear brake duct winglets continues the theme of reducing downforce. Low winglets on the brake ducts will be reduced in length by 40mm to 80mm, while high winglets will remain 120mm long. On the face of it, it might appear a trivial alteration. But these winglets are highly efficient in contributing downforce to the cars. Nowhere does form follow function more than in F1. The clampdown on downforce extends to the shortening of the diffuser fences too, the vertical stakes are reduced by 50mm. Downforce is a key factor of performance in F1. How teams attempt to compensate for lost downforce remains to be seen.
"There’s one piece of regulation that inhibits one team. The Dual Axis Steering (DAS) has been banned; Mercedes’ party trick is no more"
And from 2021, teams will be subject to downforce controls called Aerodynamic Testing Regulations (ATR). These will stipulate the amount of time each team is permitted to use the wind tunnel or Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. That is decided by what position each team finished the previous season in. In layman’s terms, the lower down a team finished in the Constructors’ championship in 2020, the more time a team will have to develop the aerodynamics on their car for 2022. That means Mercedes will get the least time, while Williams will get the most.
It’s just another lever the FIA have pulled to try and close the performance gap between the top and bottom teams. But aerodynamics aside, there are other unsighted changes. The unfuelled minimum weight of cars has risen from 746kg in 2020 to 752kg in 2021. There’s a similar increase with the power units too; the minimum weight has gone up from 145kg in 2020 to 150kg in 2021. The reason is to disincentivise teams from using expensive weight saving materials.
Teams are now prohibited from copying rival cars too. The Technical Regulations for 2021 have closed that loophole. It comes after the then Racing Point team (now Aston Martin) illegally copied parts of the 2019 Mercedes car for the 2020 season. That notoriety meant it was labelled with some mildly amusing nicknames like “Pink Mercedes” and “Copy Point”. For 2021, each team had two development tokens to modify the cars design. Aston Martin spent the two tokens on upgrading their chassis. So that preprapared “Green Mercedes” nickname has no validity.
There’s one piece of regulation that inhibits one team. The Dual Axis Steering (DAS) has been banned; Mercedes’ party trick is no more. The use of some new "green" materials – flax, linen, cotton, hemp and bamboo – is now permitted. And Pirelli will supply more robust tyre compounds to better cope with the velocity of the cars. But beyond the Technical Regulation changes, the format of the race weekend has been altered too. For the 2021 season, Free Practice 1 (FP1) and Free Practice 2 (FP2) have been shortened from 90 minutes to 60 minutes.
The talking points!
So, the Bahrain sand has settled on pre-season testing, and it threw up a number of talking points in anticipation of the 2021 season. Of course, caveats apply when interpreting the pecking order making it difficult to accurately determine. Factors like car specifications, engine modes, fuel loads, tyre type all distort the perception of performance. Even so, the take away from pre-season testing is that Red Bull look to be in the best position for the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix.
By Mercedes’ high standards, the team didn’t have a good pre-season test. The first day was blighted by reliability issues with the gearbox which curtailed running and disrupted the teams testing programme. From then on, Mercedes had to play catchup to make up for lost time. Aside from Lewis Hamilton beaching his W12 in the gravel trap in the mid-morning session, the second day unfolded almost as they would have wanted. And the third day continued that pattern.
Hamilton and teammate Valtteri Bottas accumulated good milage and acquiring good data for the team. But both drivers did have their hands full getting to grips with the balance and stability of the car. Although they made some steps forward in improving the handling of the W12, Mercedes don’t appear as content as previous pre-season tests. They don’t seem to have found the sweet spot that unlocks the cars potential. Mercedes have sought to play down expectations as a result. But time will tell. Despite the setbacks, the teams track record speaks for itself. Mercedes remains the benchmark team to beat.
In contrast to Mercedes’ troubles, Red Bull had an excellent pre-season test. For the record, I hold no candle for Max Verstappen whatsoever, or Red Bull for that matter. But Verstappen is a talented driver and Red Bull are a competent team. And in testing for the 2021 season, the RB16B demonstrated a glimpse of its performance credentials. Straight out of the traps, the car ran without any notable reliability hinderances, and it was quick. Verstappen set the fastest time of pre-season testing to underline Red Bulls inherent pace. It puts the team in a strong position heading into the first race.
"It’s clear that the performance of Mercedes and Red Bull means they are likely to be closer than ever on track"
But beyond that and definitive conclusions are hard to determine. Yet as an outsider looking in, it’s clear that the performance of Mercedes and Red Bull means they are likely to be closer than ever on track. To add further intrigue, McLaren also had a great pre-season test. With Mercedes now supplying them power units, it should serve to further bolster the team’s gradual revival. Daniel Ricciardo and Lando Norris completed lots of laps in the MCL35M, had next to no reliability problems and looked to have some promising pace too. Expect McLaren to be closer to Mercedes and Red Bull.
Whereas Ferrari on the other hand seemed to struggle with the new SF21 car during stages of pre-season testing. Whether the team were simply sandbagging or not will be revealed at the first race. Alpine also looked to be in decent shape, with Fernando Alonso (who I rate very highly) driving the A521 car like he never left. It was far harder to read Aston Martin and the AMR21 car, but Alpha Tauri did show a turn of speed in the AT02 car. Alpha Romeo, Williams and Haas appear to be the stragglers.
Callum's title predictions!
Drivers: Lewis Hamilton | Constructors: Mercedes
Despite pre-season testing difficulties, I can only see one outcome. The strength and depth of the Mercedes juggernaut means that they can react to stumbling blocks, and ultimately overcome them. Even if Hamilton and Bottas initially struggle with the W12 car, Mercedes will work to resolve and put right whatever issues they might have. They just might have their work cut out doing so.
2021 is likely to be the toughest title defence yet. But Mercedes will fight to claim an unprecedented eighth consecutive Constructors’ championship in 2021. And Hamilton will battle to be crowned Drivers’ champion for a record eighth time in 2021. The Hamilton Mercedes partnership is just too strong for rivals to handle. Time will tell whether I’m right, or wrong!
Photos: Formula 1
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